It’s the summer of 2024, and for the 57th year in a row, the Toronto Maple Leafs are not NHL victors and the Stanley Cup isn’t being paraded down Yonge and Bloor Street. Despite the drought, there is, or at least was, reason for optimism. In the summer of 2014, 2015 and 2016, the Leafs selected its current core of William Nylander, Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews during the NHL’s annual draft and they’ve been leading this team ever since the 2016-17 season. In fact, since then, the Leafs haven’t missed the playoffs once and are currently tied with the longest active playoff streak in the NHL with the Boston Bruins. Unfortunately, this hasn’t resulted in a Stanley Cup and to be honest it’s not like they’ve had much playoff success either. Of the 8 years, they’ve lost in the first round 7 times and of the one year they were victorious, they lost in the second round in five games.
In this 3 Part Series, we analyze the Toronto Maple Leafs. Part 1 dives into what plagues the Leafs year in and year out. Part 2 looks at the core problem areas and how we can change. While in Part 3 we stop theorizing and look at actual trade scenarios for roster improvement. All in hopes of Toronto one day raising the Stanley Cup.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
– Past Playoffs – What Happened?
– Toronto Maple Leafs Issues
– Goaltending
– The Offence Dries Up
– Lack Of Defence
– Salary Cap Woes
– Conclusion
2016-17 Season – Round 1 Exit versus the Washington Capitals in Game 6
Despite the first-round exit, this year was nothing but positive for the Maple Leafs. It was the first full year of young stars William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and Auston Matthews. They were surrounded by veteran forwards Nazem Kadri, James Van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak. Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner anchored the defence, while Frederik Andersen aka Steady Freddy was the man between the pipes.
The Leafs went from finishing last the year before to 8th seed in the Eastern Conference. Quite the turnaround. However, when you’re the 8th seed you’re faced with taking on the first seed in the conference and it was none other than the more experienced Alexander Ovechkin led Washington Capitals. While no one had hopes for this team, the Leafs took the Caps to six games. 5 games went to overtime and one goal margins decided all games.
If this year was any indication of the future, the Leafs’ future was bright and a Stanley Cup appeared to be on the horizon.
2017-18 And 2018-19 Season – Round 1 Exit Versus The Boston Bruins In 7 Games
The Boston Bruins matched up with the Leafs two years in a row in the first round and they similarly exited them both times as they were decided in Game 7’s. However, while both years had the same outcome, gameplay was much different and so were the two Leafs teams that were put forward.
The 17-18 Toronto Maple Leafs team was virtually the same team as the year before, except for the addition of veteran forward and former Canadian Olympian, Patrick Marleau. Patrick provided the Leafs with top-6 numbers and off-ice leadership that was greatly needed in the locker room but this Leafs team was outmatched and outplayed by the Boston Bruins. They were outscored 28 to 20 during the series and were outshot 245 to 200. The Leafs didn’t deserve this series and the fact that it even went to 7 games is a testament to the goal-scoring capabilities and resiliency of this young Maple Leafs squad.
The 18-19 season was different. The Leafs improved their offence and sturdiness down the middle with the addition of NHL Superstar John Tavares and improved the nastiness of their defence with Stanley Cup Champion Jake Muzzin. If they were going to get over the first-round playoff hump this was the year where they were built to do so, but unfortunately, they fell again to the Boston Bruins.
A bummer – yes, but reason for optimism – absolutely. The Leafs weren’t bullied around offensively by Marchand and crew. They were able to go toe-to-toe with the Big Bad Bruins and this series could’ve gone either way. The Bruins fell to the St. Louis Blues in the Stanley Cup Finals, so the Leafs taking them to 7 games is a sign that they are progressing toward their ultimate goal.
2019-20 Season – Round 1 Exit Versus The Columbus Blue Jackets In Game 5
The Covid shortened 19-20 Toronto Maple Leafs saw a regression. Fan favourite forwards, Nazem Kadri and Connor Brown were shipped out of town, prized pick-ups Tyson Barrie and Jason Spezza didn’t perform well and highly-regarded coach Mike Babcock was fired mid-year and replaced with the player-friendly Sheldon Keefe.
This year’s Leafs didn’t click from the get go, so another first-round bounce wasn’t surprising.
If there was a time to be concerned, it started this year. However, championships aren’t won without stumbling first, so maybe this was all necessary to learn what it means to be a winner.
2020-21 Season – Round 1 Exit – Versus The Montreal Canadiens In Game 7
The troublesome ways of the previous year did not last. The Leafs were dominant all season long. The acquisitions of Joe Thornton, Wayne Simmonds, TJ Brodie, Nick Foligno and Zach Bogosian paid huge dividends. This was another Covid shortened season and the Leafs finished with 77 points in 56 games. If this is a normal 82-game regular season, the Leafs would’ve finished with 113 points which was good for 6th in the league! Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews finished top 5 in league scoring, with Auston claiming his first-ever Rocket Richard Trophy by scoring 41 goals in 52 games!
Unfortunately, the regular season success didn’t carry over into the Stanley Cup Playoffs. After taking a 3-1 series lead against the Montreal Canadiens they lost the next 3 games losing the series 3-4 in game 7.
Many pessimistic fans and observers believed there was a first-round curse for the Leafs after their defeats against Boston. I always observed the positives and growth of the Maple Leafs and didn’t truly believe this until after this series. There was a problem in Leaf’s land.
2021-22 Season – Round 1 Exit – Versus The Tampa Bay Lightning In Game 7
A devastating loss to the Stanley Cup finalist, the Tampa Bay Lightning unfortunately followed another dominant regular season. In round 1. Again. However, positive conclusions could still be drawn from this series. Similar to their last Playoff matchup against the Boston Bruins this was a toe-to-toe matchup against the Stanley Cup finalist, proving again that the Maple Leafs are right there.
If it wasn’t obvious before it is now. The Leafs do not win when it matters most. It’s another deciding game and the Leafs fall. Surely, change is coming. Right?!?
2022-23 Season – Round 2 Exit – Versus The Florida Panthers In Game 5
In terms of roster shakeup, there wasn’t anything major done, mid-season trade acquisition of Jake McCabe was a big win for Leafs Nation. Shut-down defensemen have always been few and far between so Jake was much needed. However, Jake (McCabe) essentially replaced stay-at-home defenseman Jake (Muzzin) who sustained a mid-season neck injury and hasn’t suited up for a game since.
Another year another playoff exit, but this post-season was different than all of the ones before. They finally advanced to the 2nd round, knocking off the defending Stanley Cup Champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning in 6 games. However, their spirits were squashed quickly as the Florida Panthers eliminated the Leafs in 5 games in the second round.
For the first time in 18 years, the Maple Leafs advanced past the first round. Providing critics and fans that actual, verifiable progress has been made but is it enough? Getting past the first round and losing in 5 games isn’t all that impressive, but progress had been made, so another shot was given.
2023-24 Season – Round 1 Exit – Versus The Boston Bruins In Game 7
While head coach Sheldon Keefe remained wunderkind GM Kyle Dubas was not re-upped with a new contract after five years on the job and was replaced by the much older Brad Treliving. Brad’s acts that summer were to re-up Sheldon Keefe for an additional two years and add scoring and grit to the forward group with the additions of Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi. Would these changes bear any fruit for Leafs Nation?
Are any of us even the least bit surprised? Is this not the outcome we were all expecting? Even the next-round opponent, the Florida Panthers, knew that their next opponent was going to be the Boston Bruins.
The Leafs went 0-4 versus the Bruins during the regular season, they got humiliated in game 1, Nylander and Matthews spent time in the press box due to injuries, while John Tavares and Mitch Marner combined for 5 points each in 7 games.
Of course, there was a silver lighting to all of this. The Leafs took the series to 7 games, from being down 3-1. They lost this game 7 in overtime which could’ve gone either way, but enough is enough. The Leafs have run out of time and it’s time to stop with the moral victories. Dominant regular seasons followed by playoff regret aren’t good enough anymore.
Over the past 8 years goaltending for the Leafs has been average at best. The team’s offence makes up for the goaltending woes during the regular season but in the post-season the offence dries up year-over-year and goaltending cannot rise to the occasion. Over the past 8 post-seasons the Leafs save percentage is .908 while the playoff average is 0.947. This is a marked differential from the league average. While goaltending is better during the regular season, it’s not exactly a strong suit of the Leafs either.
Toronto Maple Leafs Goaltending From 2016-17 To 2023-24
Leafs Regular Season Average Save % | NHL Regular Season Average Save % | Leafs NHL Playoffs Average Save % | NHL Playoffs Average Save % |
|---|---|---|---|
.908 | .908 | .908 | .947 |
| 4.1% worse than league average | ||
The Leaf’s goaltending is league average at best during the regular season and below average during the Playoffs, it’s tough to win games in the NHL playoffs if the goalie on the opposing side is outdueling yours every night.
As discussed in the paragraph above, Toronto’s save percentage is well below the league average during the playoffs. This isn’t good but how does the offence fare? Every year since the 2016-17 season the Leafs have scored more goals than the league average. Cumulatively over this time span, they’ve averaged 3.42/goals per game and the league average is 2.98/goals per game. Impressive numbers to say the least. Unfortunately, the same does not hold during the playoffs. Since the 2016-17 NHL Playoffs the Leafs have averaged 2.63/goals per game and the NHL average is 2.75.
Cumulative Totals From 2016-17 To 2023-24
Leafs Regular Season Goals per Game Average | NHL Regular Season Goals per Game Average | Leafs Playoffs Goals per Game Average | NHL Playoffs Goals per Game Average |
|---|---|---|---|
3.42 | 2.98 | 2.63 | 2.75 |
15% better than league average | 3.5% worse than league average | ||
This is an offensive team that struggles to score in the post-season. Not good.
Similar to the forward group, the defence is composed largely of young offensive defensemen. Led by the smooth-skating Morgan Reilly the Leafs have struggled to defend. When opposing forwards obtain control of the puck below the Leaf’s hashmarks it’s not fun being a Leafs fan. Too frequently I would turn on the TV and witness defenders like Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren and Jake Gardiner being turned inside out against stronger opposing forwards.
This narrative of the Leafs’ defence has been a recurring storyline over the past 8 years and the GM’s, in particular Kyle Dubas, have always done a good job of shoring this up as best as possible. They’ve made in-season acquisitions of shutdown d-men on non-expiring contracts twice. Jake McCabe and Jake Muzzin who have respectively performed well for the Leafs. They’ve consistently signed defensive defensemen during free agency such as Zach Bogosian and TJ Brodie and made numerous splashes during the trade deadline to acquire defensive depth like Luke Schenn and Joel Edmundson to name a few. However, it has never been enough and continues to be a sore spot for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Since, the 2019 – 2020 season the Leafs have spent $40.489 million per year on Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander and Mitch Marner. When compared against the NHL salary cap the Leafs have spent at least 48% of their total salary cap per year on just four players. This leaves 52% of their remaining salary to be spent on 16 players. No other team is even close to spending this salary on just four players.
The Proportion Of Salary Cap Spent On A Team’s Top Four Forwards – Leafs vs. Stanley Cup Champion
2021-22 NHL Season | |
|---|---|
Toronto Maple Leafs | 49.7% |
Colorado Avalanche | 33.7% |
2022-23 NHL Season | |
|---|---|
Toronto Maple Leafs | 49.1% |
Vegas Golden Knights | 31.4% |
2023-24 NHL Season | |
|---|---|
Toronto Maple Leafs | 48.5% |
| 37.9% |
Florida Panthers | 36.4% |
The problems stated above, with defence struggling to defend and goaltending struggling to keep pucks out. Knowing how the Leafs have spent their money over the past few years can you really be surprised? The Leafs must spend money to improve on inefficiencies, but this is a luxury they don’t have because it’s all tied up in four players. To make matters worse, the four players are all forwards. It’s not a split between forwards, defensemen and goalies. Nope, it’s just forwards. A core-four forward group that has performed extremely well during the regular season but comes up short every single post-season.
While the past 8 years have certainly not been all bad, the Leafs must make changes. Everything from the front office to goaltending has seen its fair share of personnel changes and now I believe the time is to change the part of the Leafs that hasn’t been touched since the end of the 2016-17 season. It’s time to change the starting 5 of the Toronto Maple Leafs. It consists of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Morgan Reilly. While many teams would salivate at the opportunity of building around these players it hasn’t quite worked out for Toronto the way we all hoped it would.
Stay tuned for Part Two as we address how the Leafs can fix some of their issues and Part Three, where we dive into actual trade scenarios.
References
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Quintin Soloviev via Own Work cc
David via _25A0455 cc
