We’re a few games short of reaching the quarter mark of the 2024-25 NHL season and hopefully to no one’s surprise, our expectations on more than a few players were off. I mean, how could we not get things wrong? At Get Pucks Deep, we don’t have a crystal ball. So, let’s look to see what players we were wrong about. We will look at the surprises – performed better than expected, and the letdowns – who haven’t met our expectations (thus far).
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Martin was a player named on the honourable mentions portion of the sleeper list article, which was posted right before the start of the season. During the past offseason, the Hurricanes lost Jake Guentzel, Stefan Noesen, and Teuvo Teravainen up front, so someone had to replace the offensive minutes these three were given. Queue Martin Necas and he hasn’t disappointed. He has 9 goals, 16 assists, and 25 points in only 15 games played!
We predicted Necas would equal his career-best output of 71 points and was someone we already predicted would far outshine his 53-point total from last year, but his pace right now is superstar level, so he had to make this list because who could have seen this coming?!? Certainly not us.
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPP | SOG | HTS | BLKS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original Prediction | 80 | 28 | 43 | 71 | 23 | 240 | 57 | 21 |
| Projection | 82 | 49 | 87 | 136 | 55 | 197 | 60 | 22 |
A surprising name on this list because I already thought he peaked. Now, 27 years old, he’s had back-to-back 60+ point campaigns and the ages of 25-27 is typically when a player peaks offensively. Naturally, I thought this rule applied to Dylan Strome, and I thought the arrival of Pierre-Luc Dubois would affect Strome’s playing time. However, I was wrong on both counts.
Dylan Strome is on pace for 125 points he has never surpassed more than 67. Surely, this trend won’t continue but it has been an impressive first 15 games to date and we’re finally starting to see why he was the #3 overall pick in the 2015 NHL draft behind McDavid and Eichel and ahead of players such as Mitch Marner and Matthew Barzal.
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPP | SOG | HTS | BLKS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original Prediction | 82 | 23 | 41 | 64 | 20 | 160 | 15 | 45 |
| Projection | 82 | 27 | 98 | 125 | 27 | 142 | 5 | 66 |
He might be the most surprising name on this list. A 2nd-round, 49th overall pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, Kirill Marchenko had a career year last year posting 23 goals and 42 points in 78 games played, and I thought this was probably as good as it’s going to get. I foresaw 50+ point seasons in the years ahead (I didn’t expect this feat to be achieved this year), but through 15 games he’s scored 15 points and is on pace to smash the 40-point total we predicted for him at the onset of this year. Columbus is a deeper team this year than last and I didn’t think Marchenko would take a step forward.
His ice time is up, his ATOI was 16:25 last year and it’s now currently 18:11. This is only his third campaign in the NHL and he is only 24 years old. Hopefully, the best is yet to come for the young Russian forward.
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPP | SOG | HTS | BLKS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original Prediction | 80 | 19 | 21 | 40 | 10 | 190 | 40 | 55 |
| Projection | 82 | 33 | 49 | 82 | 22 | 197 | 55 | 5 |
What is wrong with this guy? His slump started last year during the 23-24 NHL Playoffs where he finished with 1 goal and 6 points in 13 playoff games. He’s the fifth highest-paid player in the league and is in the first year of an 8-year $11.6 million AAV contract.
Pettersson has been dealing with a nagging knee injury (tendonitis) since the end of last year which explains his drop-off. To end last year’s regular season he had 6 goals and 17 points in the last 26 games. Dealing with daily pain is difficult and dealing with a nagging knee injury is no joke. This could be the beginning of the end for Pettersson and if it is, it’s a sad day for hockey because this guy reminded me of Datsyuk the way he was able to keep the puck on a string.
He’s sitting with 4 goals and 9 points through his first 15 games, and even for an injured Pettersson I think he’s still underachieving. Expect a slight uptick as the season goes along but things aren’t looking good for Pettersson.
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPP | SOG | HTS | BLKS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original Prediction | 80 | 38 | 62 | 100 | 29 | 245 | 90 | 71 |
| Projection | 82 | 22 | 27 | 49 | 16 | 180 | 131 | 109 |
Originally, I predicted a slight decrease in Stammer’s production. For 23-24, he registered 40 goals and 81 points in 79 games played, but for this year, I predicted 30 goals and 70 points. Still very productive, but a slight decline. I predicted this because going to a new team, even if it comes with increased opportunity, is a tough transition, and the older you become, I believe, the more difficult it becomes.
However, his first 17 games have not gone close to plan. He’s been good for 4 goals and 8 points through this span and the Predators are sitting near the bottom of the standings. Not something you expect from the biggest spenders of July 1st, 2024. All signs aren’t bad though, he’s fired 46 shots on goal for a rate of 2.7 shots per game which is just barely below his career average of 3.07, so there’s a chance he turns things around but if he’s to achieve a 70 point output he would need to be a point per game player for the rest of the season and I don’t think a 34-year old Steven Stamkos is capable of this.
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPP | SOG | HTS | BLKS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original Prediction | 80 | 30 | 40 | 70 | 31 | 220 | 70 | 45 |
| Projection | 82 | 19 | 19 | 38 | 29 | 221 | 72 | 29 |
The names on the bust list are always surprising, but putting Jason Robertson’s name down is not a good feeling. He’s not even on pace for 50 points this year. What is going on?!? He was a Hart Trophy candidate in my books before the year started but it’s gotten off to a rocky start. He did have offseason surgery and missed some training camp to recover which is unfortunate but producing with a points per game rate of 0.533 is other-worldly and isn’t what you expect from a player of this calibre.
As the year goes on you can’t expect this trend to continue. He’s much too good for that. The Stars are again among the league’s best and Jason Robertson is their best player. Let’s hope he can turn it around for Dallas and for fantasy owners everywhere.
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPP | SOG | HTS | BLKS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original Prediction | 80 | 39 | 53 | 92 | 34 | 260 | 70 | 25 |
| Projection | 82 | 22 | 22 | 44 | 5 | 213 | 77 | 38 |
Surprises:
Connor McMichael and Ivan Barbashev
Busts:
Wyatt Johnston, Kris Letang and Dylan Cozens
