Toronto Maple Leafs Part 2: Addressing Change

This is the 2nd installment of our 3 Part Series on the Toronto Maple Leafs.

All you have to do is take a quick stroll in downtown TO and ask one simple question to pedestrians, ‘What is Wrong with the Toronto Maple Leafs?’ and you will get a plethora of answers. “Marner’s too soft.” “Nylander needs to skate to the bench faster.” “Can the goalies stop a puck?!?” I’m sure these are some of the answers you will hear. With hindsight in hand, everybody knows what the problem is, but how do you fix it? Firing management and getting rid of players is a potential solution but how does that look? If we trade Marner, who do we get in return? There aren’t a lot of players in the NHL who can do what Marner can do. For whatever, we do get in return does it make the Leafs better today? Sure we could get a few draft picks and the future might be brighter 3 or 4 years down the road, but that doesn’t help us win today, and the Leafs are in win-now mode.

So, let’s not point out the obvious and solely point out flaws. How do we make this team better today? What does change look like? Let’s find out!

TABLE OF CONTENTS

– The Shakeup – Matthews, Nylander Or Marner
– Advantages And Disadvantages Of A Mitch Marner Trade
– Get Good Goaltending
– Big Body D-Corps
– Morgan Rielly Is All That Is Needed
– Conclusion

The Shakeup – Matthews, Nylander Or Marner

The status quo is not acceptable anymore. The Leafs can’t win in the postseason. The subsections below discuss more obvious and friendlier ways to fix the Leafs, but the real problem lies with the core. They can’t get it done when it matters most. Marner, Matthews and Nylander made us all believe in the Leafs again and that might be why we haven’t prevailed yet.

One of them must go but who? Captain John Tavares has been alongside Matthews, Nylander and Marner since the 2017-18 season and they’re better known as the “Core 4.” JT is probably the player most people want to see leave but is the most unlikely. He’s the least desirable out of the four. In a down year last year, he posted 29 goals and 65 points in 80 games. He will be 34 years old for puck drop next year and is in the last year of a $11 million AAV contract. At that term, salary and age JT isn’t desirable enough and the Leafs don’t have a lot of valuable trade assets to bargain off to make Tavares more attractive. According to CapFriendly, for the upcoming 2025 NHL Draft, the Leafs first selection will be in the 5th round and giving up something to get rid of Tavares for only one year of salary isn’t worth it.

This leaves us with the dazzling three – Matthews, Nylander and Marner. Out of the three, Matthews is the golden boy and Leafs fandom will be in uproar if traded, so it’s best to let him and his moustache stay.

Now we’re down to two. Mitch Marner and William Nylander. Who in all honesty share a lot of similarities on and off the ice. They’re both pass-first players. Exhibit excellent skating and stick handling abilities. Both wingers. Both have an incredible ability to skate the puck through the neutral zone and into the offensive end, dodging opponents like they were bystanders and not professionals. A pair of truly talented ice hockey players. On the other hand, they’ve both endured their fair share of Toronto media hate, the most popular of which is their lack of work ethic. For Marner it’s during the playoffs for Nylander it’s his defensive ability and how hard he skates off the ice after a shift.

Which of the two should go? In all honesty, it doesn’t matter. Both players are comparables. They both bring scoring at an elite pace and the way they score is similar, but the easier of the two to trade is Mitch Marner and that is because of cap. The start of the 2024-25 NHL season will mark the first year of Nylander’s 8-year $92 million contract which carries an AAV of $11.5 million which will make him the 6th highest-paid player in the league. Players with this type of salary cap usually do not get traded because of the movement clauses and the difficulties the salary cap era makes things today.

On the flip side, the 2024-25 NHL regular season will be the last of Marner’s 6-year $65.418 million contract he signed with the Leafs in 2019. The AAV is $10,903,000 which although marginally is less than Nylander’s plus he is only 27 years old so his best playing days are directly in front of him. Any team looking to increase goal-scoring is interested in Mitch Marner and with the ability to negotiate the upcoming contract, it makes Marner the most enticing of the bunch.

Advantages And Disadvantages Of A Mitch Marner Trade

The number #1 advantage of trading away Mitch Marner is cap space. Cap is king, especially today because of the COVID-induced salary cap stabilization phase teams are experiencing. Cap space is king because of the flexibility it provides. Many teams are forced to trade or buyout a player they might want because of cap constraints. By trading away Marner the Leafs can look into trading for players and signing free agents that they otherwise might not have been able to before. Cap space allows the Leafs to forge a new identity and fill in the gaps in their current roster. As we will mention soon enough, goaltending and defence are issues for this club and with cap space the Leafs can rectify these problems and make themselves better than they ever were.

“I just traded away Mitch Marner… what was I thinking?” This is something that Brad Treliving and Leafs management will be saying to themselves repeatedly and this is when the phenomenon known as seller’s remorse will kick in. You have to be partially crazy to think that trading away a superstar is a good thing to do. Most of the time, the team that trades away the best player is the loser. Marner is only 27 years old and has already accumulated 639 points in 576 NHL games. He has been named to two NHL First All-Star Teams and is an absolute joy to watch on the ice because of his skating and stick handling abilities. Trading away a player of this magnitude is never really something GM’s consider because all they want is to acquire a player like him and build around them.

The Maple Leafs have had a regular season cheat code since drafting the big three. To point out the obvious, to win a hockey game a team must score more goals than the other team and this is the sentiment of the Leafs for the past 8 years. It’s no secret that defensively the Leafs struggle but offensively they do not. They can score at will. If you turn on the television and the Leafs are playing a Stanley Cup calibre team they tend to never really dominate gameplay. At times they do offensively but turnovers and defensive gaffes have always been a part of their game. Most teams in the NHL don’t dominate every game they play so this isn’t a knock against them but the Leafs tend to capitalize on their scoring chances more often than not. They’re an extremely opportunistic team. It’s rare for the Leafs to be stymied by a goalie all night long, except for the playoffs.

If Marner is traded away the offense takes a step backwards. Tavares is regressing and only two of the big three now remain. What if Matthews or Nylander gets injured and they miss some time? The offence will dry up quickly and the Leafs will struggle to score. Can you picture this scenario? So, please ask yourself the question, is trading away Mitch Marner worth it? If the Leafs do move the superstar, they will be at the cap ceiling no more and other parts of their game will seemingly improve like their goaltending and defense. Is moving Mitch Marner to marginally improve three areas worth it?

Get Good Goaltending

The most notable trend I’ve witnessed recently is that all Stanley Cup-winning teams have outstanding goaltending and they have undisputed #1 goalies. The past 3 Cup winning goaltenders Darcy Kuemper, Adin Hill and Sergei Bobrovsky all started more than 16 playoff games for their respective clubs. Let’s take a look at how the Stanley Cup-winning goaltenders and the Leafs have compared over the past few years.

2021-22 NHL Playoffs

2022-23 NHL Playoffs

2023-24 NHL Playoffs

Except for the most recent year, and if not for Joseph Woll in particular, the Leaf’s goalies pale in comparison to the Cup-hoisters. Hockey is a very unique game. It’s a very well-balanced sport meaning no matter how good one team is over the other both will get their fair share of scoring chances throughout the game. Momentum swings frequently during an NHL game and this happens for any number of reasons such as penalties, icing calls, big hits and even random puck bounces. Both goalies will face between 20 to 40 shots a game, which is a high volume. Obviously, good team defence can reduce the number of high-danger scoring chances and shot frequency, but if something is true in hockey it’s that the opposing team is going to get scoring chances no matter how bad they’re and the goalie must come to shine in those moments.

This is a luxury that the Leafs have never really had. Over the past few playoff years alone I can recall Jeremy Swayman, Sergei Bobrovsky and Carey Price shutting the door on us. We’ve lost some games that we shouldn’t have solely because of a goalie, and unfortunately, not a lot of teams can say this when they face the Leafs. Don’t get me wrong, Maple Leafs goaltending hasn’t been atrocious, Joseph Woll has been flawless during the past two playoff runs, but unfortunately for Toronto, Woll hasn’t played the majority of playoff games and they’ve suffered for it.

While frustrating, to see the opposing team’s goalies come through when needed most and the Leafs struggling to receive a timely save, The worst is over because of Joseph Woll. His career regular season numbers are 2.76 goals against average (GAA) and a .912 save percentage over 36 games is impressive and at only 25 years of age there is plenty of room to grow. The 2024-25 NHL season will be the last year of his entry-level contract and Brad Treliving just put ink to paper on a three-year $10.98 million contract ensuring that Woll be in a Leafs uniform until at least the 2027-28 season.

The future of Leafs goaltending can be split into two major categories. They can operate a tandem for the next few years. Joseph Woll can split the crease with someone capable of playing 35 or so games. The other option is placing Joseph Woll in the backup role for the next 1-3 years and acquiring someone who can take on the lion’s share of work and is capable of putting up starting goaltending statistics.

Targets

Laurent Brossoit and Anthony Stolarz put up great numbers in a backup role last year. Given their age I can’t see why they can’t handle an additional 10 or so games and split the crease with young Joseph Woll. Ilya Samsonov is a name familiar to Toronto and we’ve seen him face his fair share of good and bad days in a Leafs uniform. Over the past two years, Ilya has proven enough. He can’t handle a starting role but is capable of putting up respectable numbers in a split role. I believe Leafs Nation might have had enough of Ilya but fans are fans for a reason and this is an option the Leafs should consider.

Acquiring a starting goaltender is the more riskier option but the higher reward. I’ve identified three goalies on non-contending teams that can help. The first is Ilya Sorokin. The four-year career netminder has put up outstanding numbers in his career. He sports a career 2.54 GAA and .919 save percentage over 192 games played, which is impressive, to say the least. However, he had a career-worst year last year He lost the starting job in the playoffs and next year will be the first of an 8-year $66 million contract he signed in the summer of 2023. Great care the Leafs must take if trading for Sorokin. Is last year an indication of who he is as a goalie or was it just a bump in the road for this potential Vezina Trophy winner?

The second goalie is John Gibson. Mr. Gibson has been a starting goalie for the Anaheim Ducks since the 2016-17 season. He has struggled in recent years but in his defense, the Ducks are just a bad team. They’ve been a tunnel-dweller in the NHL for the past few years and no amount of goaltending can change that. Gibson is 30 years old and has 3 years left on a deal that carries an AAV of $6.4 million which is very reasonable. However, his numbers recently have not been good. Who knows, maybe a change of scenery will re-awaken the three-time NHL all-star.

Big Body D-Corps

Let’s take a look at the Leafs defensive corps for the upcoming 2024-25 season

For the 2024-25 season, the Leafs have Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe, Simon Benoit, Timothy Liljegren and Conor Timmins signed for next year. This leaves the Leafs with 5 defensemen on contract. Morgan Rielly is a legitimate #1 NHL, power-play quarterback defenseman and is getting paid like it at $7.5 million. Jake McCabe is also a top-pairing NHL defenseman but is seen more as a defensive defenseman and eats up a lot of PK minutes. The 25-year-old Simon Benoit has come out of his own these past two years and has established himself as an NHL player but on a quality defensive team he might not be top-four worthy. He is a 6’4” 205lbs defender and the Leafs utilized him heavily on the PK last year. Timmins was scratched throughout the entirety of the Leafs playoffs this year and at 25 years old this might be his last year to make a name for himself. Liljegren is also 25 and is a former first-round pick of the Leafs in 2017. He’s been a full-time Leaf for the past 3 years and has established enough of a name for himself to stick around at the NHL Level. He’s small at only 190 lbs but has scored 9 goals and 41 points over the past two years with third-pairing minutes played, so he is a puck-moving offensive defenseman.

The current defence layout is structured how it always has been. In that, it’s an okay defensive corps. We possess two top NHL defensemen in Morgan Rielly and Jake McCabe and adequate 5th and 6th defensemen Timothy Liljegren and Simon Benoit but depth and the capabilities of playing true shut-down defensive hockey is what the Toronto Maple Leafs lack. If Rielly or more notably McCabe goes down to injury there is a big hole to be filled and no one not even collectively they’re capable of filling that hole. I stressed this in Part I, but Leafs management has done an excellent job shoring up defensive gaffes as best as possible. Midterm deadline acquisitions Ilya Lyubushkin, Joel Edmundson, Luke Schenn and Mark Giordano have all provided the Leafs with defensive depth and PK help in recent years but it’s never been enough and is always an issue. At one point last year, the Leafs PK ranked 27th in the league. In response, Treliving acquired penalty killers Ilya Lyubushkin and Joel Edmundson, with limited cap room, you can’t ask for more in-season help than that.

Time and time again the Leafs man the same type of defence. They’re offensively minded which matches their identity and it’s a structure that facilitates goals but that is about it. Quality depth is something the Leafs lack greatly. If Rielly or McCabe suffers an injury those shoes cannot be filled. If one of the Core 4 (Matthews, Tavares, Marner or Nylander) gets injured the Leafs can still score goals at an elite pace so Toronto possesses quality depth up front but not on the back end.

Furthermore, the Leafs are just easy to play against. What I mean by this is the ol’ Shea Weber or PK Subban debate. The offensive defensemen vs the defensive defensemen. Who is the defenseman your team most needs? On one end of the spectrum, you have the offensive defensemen who are excellent at passing. They can move the puck up ice and skate themselves out of trouble. They’re dangerous in the offensive end and they have the puck on their stick but if they’re in the defensive zone and don’t possess the puck they struggle. They can make you look foolish with their skating abilities but if you have the puck below their hash marks they won’t be that effective in stopping you go where you want to go. Opposing forwards will want to play against these types of defensemen because they won’t put a bruise on you. These defensemen are the Erik Karlsson and Thomas Chabot types.

On the other end of the spectrum are the defensive defensemen. Typically, they’re average skaters, not good puck movers and besides a blistering shot from the point, they’re not that effective in the offensive end. Where they’re most effective is when they don’t have the puck and you do. These d-men lay massive hits and if it’s you and them in a corner alone, you will know because they will let their presence known physically. This is the defence that the Nashville Predators ran for years with the likes of Ryan Suter, Shea Weber and Matthias Ekholm. They were a punishing team to play against. If you don’t believe me just ask future hall-of-famer Jonathan Toews. Toews faced off against division-rival Shea Weber for years and when he was famously shipped out of Nashville to the Eastern Conference for PK Subban he had this to say about it:

Most defenders and teams aren’t extremists and don’t fit on the ends of the spectrum but somewhere in the middle. The Leafs are an example of this as they have both types but recently they’re an offensive defensive type team. They’re excellent when the puck is in the offensive end and that is about it. The Maple Leafs need to change this narrative. They need to be tougher to play against and this starts with the bodies on the back end. I’ve identified some areas below on how they can do this.

Morgan Rielly Is All That Is Needed

It’s time for the Leafs to move past the smallish Swedish defensemen with offensive upside they keep drafting. Such as Liljegren in 2017 and Rasmus Sandin in 2018. Established puck movers are essential to building a winning team but the Leafs shouldn’t focus on acquiring them anymore because they have Morgan Rielly in the fold and what they’ve been doing isn’t working. Besides Rielly the other 5 defensemen should be more defensively minded.

The Leafs have just re-signed Timothy Liljegren to a 2-year $6 million contract for the 2024-25 NHL season and while I’m not the biggest fan of the move, it’s by no means a terrible one. Rielly could get injured and Lilly is a suitable replacement. With Rielly healthy and playing, I don’t have a problem with Lilly getting some PP2 minutes and playing 16 to 18 minutes a night which are third-pairing minutes.

With Rielly and Liljegren as the offensive weapons on the blue line, Simon Benoit and McCabe in shut-down roles and Timmins owning a reserve spot on the blueline the Leafs need two more defenders who play the same type of game as Benoit and McCabe. Let’s take a look at a few options.

List Of Defenders To Target

If free agency is a route the Leafs wish to pursue, Chris Tanev and Ryan Suter are short-term options they should consider. Both players have seen their fair share of NHL games and while they’re both on the wrong side of age they can contribute defensively in a meaningful way and help the Leafs out where they need it the most. Brady Skjei is another option for the Leafs but at his age and value I doubt the Leafs will be able to afford him once he hits the open market on July 1st.

If the Leafs decide to pursue a trade there are an abundance of established quality defensive defensemen that can help instantly. Brandon Carlo, Erik Cernak, and Colton Parayko are a few players at reasonable cap hits, with a few years left on their deals who can fill out defensive roles and take on second-pairing NHL minutes.

All-star defensemen on this list who are potential targets are Noah Hanifin, Travis Sanheim, Owen Power and Brock Faber. These d-men can change Toronto’s entire outlook. From a team that struggles defensively to a team that flourishes defensively. However, pulling off a trade of this magnitude is difficult.

Conclusion

Part 1 saw us learn about the problems with the Leafs. This segment, Part 2, took us one step further and we looked at ways to improve and address how change could come about and how difficult executing change can be. Part 3, the final installment, includes actual trade examples of how the Maple Leafs can accomplish change, in hopes of securing their first Stanley Cup in half a century.

References

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